{"id":3668,"date":"2026-11-02T15:58:29","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T15:58:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=3668"},"modified":"2026-11-02T15:58:29","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T15:58:29","slug":"befektetes-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=3668","title":{"rendered":"Heti Befektet\u0151i Kitekint\u0151: kamatemel\u00e9si sz\u00fcnet ut\u00e1n m\u00e1r szigor\u00edt\u00e1s j\u00f6het"},"content":{"rendered":"

Az elm\u00falt h\u00e9t legfontosabb \u00fczenete, hogy a jegybanki kamattart\u00e1sb\u00f3l m\u00e9g nem k\u00f6vetkezik laz\u00edt\u00e1s. A Fed, az EKB \u00e9s a jap\u00e1n jegybank egyar\u00e1nt kiv\u00e1rt, mik\u00f6zben a dr\u00e1ga energia, az AI-beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok \u00e9s az emelked\u0151 finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si k\u00f6lts\u00e9gek elt\u00e9r\u0151en alak\u00edtj\u00e1k mozg\u00e1ster\u00fcket. A befektet\u0151k m\u00e1r a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s fenntarthat\u00f3s\u00e1g\u00e1t \u00e9s a v\u00e1llalati beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok megt\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t vizsg\u00e1lj\u00e1k.<\/p>\n

USA: er\u0151s GDP, s\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9kenyebb fogyaszt\u00e1s, kiv\u00e1r\u00f3 Fed<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Az amerikai GDP \u00e9ves \u00f6sszevet\u00e9sben 2,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal b\u0151v\u00fclt, az el\u0151z\u0151 negyed\u00e9vhez viszony\u00edtott, \u00e9ves\u00edtett n\u00f6veked\u00e9s pedig 3,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra gyorsult a kor\u00e1bbi 2,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l. A v\u00e1llalati beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok \u00e9ves n\u00f6veked\u00e9se 8,4, a g\u00e9pbeszerz\u00e9sek\u00e9 14,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k volt. Az adatk\u00f6zpontok \u00e9s az informatikai fejleszt\u00e9sek a keresletet \u00e9s k\u00e9s\u0151bb a termel\u00e9kenys\u00e9get is t\u00e1mogathatj\u00e1k. A fogyaszt\u00e1s h\u00e1ttere ugyanakkor gyeng\u00fcl. A szem\u00e9lyes j\u00f6vedelmek szeptemberben \u00e9ves alapon 4,1, a nomin\u00e1lis kiad\u00e1sok 6,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal n\u0151ttek, mik\u00f6zben a megtakar\u00edt\u00e1si r\u00e1ta 3,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kkent. A havi re\u00e1lfogyaszt\u00e1s stagn\u00e1lt, a PCE-infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9ves \u00fcteme 3,6, az energia \u00e9s \u00e9lelmiszer n\u00e9lk\u00fcli mutat\u00f3 3,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra gyorsult. A Conference Board bizalmi index\u00e9nek 84,2 pontr\u00f3l 91,7 pontra ugr\u00e1sa ez\u00e9rt m\u00e9g nem bizony\u00edt tart\u00f3s fogyaszt\u00e1si fordulatot. A Fed t\u00edz t\u00e1mogat\u00f3 \u00e9s k\u00e9t ellenszavazattal 3,75 \u00e9s 4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6z\u00f6tt tartotta kamat\u00e1t. A k\u00e9t ellenz\u0151 emel\u00e9st s\u00fcrgetett, Warsh eln\u00f6k viszont a szeptemberi szigor\u00edt\u00e1s m\u00e1r \u00e9rz\u00e9kelhet\u0151 hat\u00e1s\u00e1t hangs\u00falyozta. A d\u00f6nt\u00e9s idej\u00e9n a piac decemberre 85 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos emel\u00e9si es\u00e9lyt \u00e1razott, mik\u00f6zben egyes elemz\u0151k l\u00e9nyegesen bizonytalanabbnak l\u00e1tj\u00e1k a folytat\u00e1st. A t\u00fcrelmesebb kommunik\u00e1ci\u00f3 seg\u00edtheti a r\u00f6videbb k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyeket, de a magas infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 korl\u00e1tozza a tart\u00f3s hozamcs\u00f6kken\u00e9st.<\/p>\n

Kanad\u00e1ban viszont m\u00e1r l\u00e9ptek. A jegybank negyed sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal 2,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra emelte kamat\u00e1t, mert meg akarja akad\u00e1lyozni az energiadr\u00e1gul\u00e1s \u00e1ltal\u00e1nos infl\u00e1ci\u00f3v\u00e1 v\u00e1l\u00e1s\u00e1t. Ez is jelzi, hogy a glob\u00e1lis kamatfordulat tov\u00e1bbra sem egys\u00e9ges, \u00e9s a kamatsz\u00fcnet k\u00f6nnyen \u00e1tmenetinek bizonyulhat.<\/p>\n

Eur\u00f3pa: jobb n\u00f6veked\u00e9s, neh\u00e9z EKB-dilemma<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezet GDP-je \u00e9ves alapon 1,3, negyed\u00e9ves \u00f6sszevet\u00e9sben 0,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal n\u0151tt, ut\u00f3bbi k\u00e9tszerese a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1snak. A meglepet\u00e9s k\u00f6zel fel\u00e9t azonban \u00cdrorsz\u00e1g adta: N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g 0,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal b\u0151v\u00fclt, Franciaorsz\u00e1g 0,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal zsugorodott, Olaszorsz\u00e1g stagn\u00e1lt. A n\u00e9met Ifo 90,2 pontra emelkedett, de a javul\u00f3 v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok mellett a jelenlegi \u00fczleti helyzet romlott. A n\u00e9met infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 3,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l 2,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra lassult, jelent\u0151s r\u00e9szben az \u00e1tmeneti \u00fczemanyagad\u00f3-kedvezm\u00e9ny miatt. A nemzeti maginfl\u00e1ci\u00f3 2,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kkent, de az olaj \u00e9s a g\u00e1z dr\u00e1gul\u00e1sa \u00fajabb \u00e1rnyom\u00e1st okozhat. Az EKB egyhang\u00falag 2,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kon tartotta bet\u00e9ti kamat\u00e1t. Az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezeti szeptemberi infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 3,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k, az energia dr\u00e1gul\u00e1sa 18,9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k volt, mik\u00f6zben a hossz\u00fa \u00e1llampap\u00edrhozamok a szeptemberi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s lez\u00e1r\u00e1sa \u00f3ta \u00e1tlagosan 35 b\u00e1zisponttal emelkedtek. A dr\u00e1gul\u00f3 hitel m\u00e1r f\u00e9kezi a gazdas\u00e1got, ez\u00e9rt decemberben m\u00e9g j\u00f6het egy negyed sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kpontos emel\u00e9s, de ut\u00e1na indokoltabb lehet a kiv\u00e1r\u00e1s. A francia k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek magas hozamfel\u00e1ra k\u00fcl\u00f6n kock\u00e1zat marad.<\/p>\n

\u00c1zsia: Jap\u00e1n szigor\u00edtana, K\u00edna bels\u0151 kereslete tov\u00e1bbra is gyenge<\/strong><\/h4>\n

A BOJ nyolc t\u00e1mogat\u00f3 \u00e9s egy ellenszavazattal 1,25 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kon tartotta kamat\u00e1t, mik\u00f6zben a tart\u00f3s infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t m\u00e1r a 2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos c\u00e9llal \u00f6sszhangban l\u00e9v\u0151nek l\u00e1tja. A megk\u00e9rdezett elemz\u0151k 83 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka decemberi emel\u00e9st v\u00e1r. Az egyik forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint tov\u00e1bbi h\u00e1rom l\u00e9p\u00e9s 2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kig emeln\u00e9 a kamatot. Az er\u0151s\u00f6d\u0151 jen \u00e9s a dr\u00e1gul\u00f3 jenhitel glob\u00e1lis r\u00e9szv\u00e9nypoz\u00edci\u00f3k le\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9t is kiv\u00e1lthatja.<\/p>\n

K\u00edn\u00e1ban az okt\u00f3beri feldolgoz\u00f3ipari beszerz\u00e9simenedzser-index 50,1 pontr\u00f3l 49,3 pontra esett, ism\u00e9t zsugorod\u00e1st jelezve. Az AI-ipar er\u0151s teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye mellett a bels\u0151 kereslet tov\u00e1bbra is gyenge, ami \u00f3vatoss\u00e1got indokol az ipari nyersanyagokkal kapcsolatban.<\/p>\n

R\u00e9szv\u00e9nypiacok: a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s mell\u00e9 megt\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9s is kell<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Az Amazon 77 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt meghalad\u00f3 negyed\u00e9ves beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sa \u00e9s negat\u00edv szabad p\u00e9nz\u00e1raml\u00e1sa megmutatta, hogy az AI-\u00edg\u00e9retek \u00f6nmagukban m\u00e1r nem elegend\u0151k. Az Intel gyenge el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szint\u00e9n elad\u00e1sokat v\u00e1ltott ki. Az eur\u00f3pai r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyalapokb\u00f3l egy h\u00e9t alatt 2,3 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r t\u00e1vozott, mik\u00f6zben az eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi v\u00e1llalatok ellen\u00e1ll\u00f3bbnak bizonyultak. Ebben a k\u00f6rnyezetben a megrendel\u00e9sek, az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gteher \u00e9s a t\u00e9nyleges p\u00e9nztermel\u00e9s fontosabb lehet a hangzatos n\u00f6veked\u00e9si tervekn\u00e9l.<\/p>\n

\u00c1rupiacok: az energia tov\u00e1bbra is infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s kock\u00e1zat<\/strong><\/h4>\n

A Hormuzi-szorosban t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt tankert\u00e1mad\u00e1s \u00e9s az \u00fajabb amerikai katonai fell\u00e9p\u00e9s lehet\u0151s\u00e9ge magasan tartja az olaj\u00e1rakat. P\u00e9nteken a lej\u00e1r\u00f3 decemberi Brent 117,64, a janu\u00e1ri kontraktus 113,43 doll\u00e1ron z\u00e1rt. A diplom\u00e1ciai h\u00edrek ugyanakkor gyors korrekci\u00f3t okozhatnak. Az eur\u00f3pai g\u00e1z\u00e1r 100 eur\u00f3 f\u00f6l\u00e9 ker\u00fclt megawatt\u00f3r\u00e1nk\u00e9nt, mik\u00f6zben a t\u00e1rol\u00f3k 75 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos t\u00f6lt\u00f6tts\u00e9ge elmarad a szezon\u00e1lis \u00e1tlagt\u00f3l. Ez az ipart \u00e9s Magyarorsz\u00e1g energiaimportj\u00e1t is terheli. Az arany 4000 doll\u00e1r al\u00e1 es\u00e9se pedig figyelmeztet\u00e9s: a geopolitikai kock\u00e1zat mellett a magas kamatok \u00e9s a befektet\u0151i elad\u00e1sok is sz\u00e1m\u00edtanak. A r\u00e9z \u00e9s a vas\u00e9rc piac\u00e1n ek\u00f6zben a k\u00ednai kereslet bizonytalans\u00e1ga ellens\u00falyozza az energetikai \u00e9s technol\u00f3giai beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok hosszabb t\u00e1v\u00fa nyersanyagig\u00e9ny\u00e9t.<\/p>\n

Forint \u00e9s \u00e1llampap\u00edrpiac: kamatel\u0151ny \u00e9s k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hiteless\u00e9g<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Az MNB 5,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos alapkamata tov\u00e1bbra is t\u00e1masz a forintnak. Az okt\u00f3ber 30-i reggeli adatok szerint az eur\u00f3 365,68, a doll\u00e1r 326,64 forintba ker\u00fclt; a h\u00e1romhavi DKJ hozama 5,14, a tizenk\u00e9t havi\u00e9 5,08, a h\u00e1rom\u00e9ves \u00e1llampap\u00edr\u00e9 5,65 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k volt. A 907 milli\u00f3 eur\u00f3s szeptemberi k\u00fclkereskedelmi t\u00f6bblet kedvez\u0151, a 6,9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra gyorsul\u00f3 termel\u0151i\u00e1r-emelked\u00e9s viszont \u00f3vatoss\u00e1got indokol. A k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hi\u00e1ny tervezett cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9se jav\u00edthatja az orsz\u00e1gkock\u00e1zatot, de a k\u00fclf\u00f6ldi eszk\u00f6z\u00f6k forintban m\u00e9rt eredm\u00e9ny\u00e9t az \u00e1rfolyam is alak\u00edtja: a devizahozam \u00f6nmag\u00e1ban nem elegend\u0151 \u00f6sszehasonl\u00edt\u00e1si alap. A magyar k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9s 2027-re 4,9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos hi\u00e1nyt c\u00e9loz, szemben az idei becs\u00fclt 7,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal. A hiteles v\u00e9grehajt\u00e1s cs\u00f6kkentheti a hozamokat, az ad\u00f3emel\u00e9sek \u00e9s az \u00e1llami beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok visszafog\u00e1sa azonban r\u00f6vid t\u00e1von f\u00e9kezheti a v\u00e1llalati n\u00f6veked\u00e9st.<\/p>\n

Magyar r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyek: egyedi lehet\u0151s\u00e9gek, v\u00e1ltoz\u00f3 ad\u00f3terhek<\/strong><\/h4>\n

A magyar GDP \u00e9ves 1,5 \u00e9s negyed\u00e9ves 0,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos n\u00f6veked\u00e9se visszafogott keresleti h\u00e1tteret jelez. Az OTP-n\u00e9l az 50 milli\u00e1rd forintos r\u00e9szv\u00e9ny-visszav\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00e1s \u00e9s a k\u00fclf\u00f6ldi terjeszked\u00e9s ellens\u00falyozhatja a k\u00fcl\u00f6nad\u00f3kat. A MOL 133 milli\u00e1rd forintos ad\u00f3-visszat\u00e9r\u00edt\u00e9si ig\u00e9nye egyszeri p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi lehet\u0151s\u00e9g, mik\u00f6zben az \u00e1gazati terhek tov\u00e1bbra is fontosak. A Richtern\u00e9l a gy\u00f3gyszer\u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9s, a Telekomn\u00e1l a p\u00e9nztermel\u00e9s, a Masterplastn\u00e1l a lak\u00e1sprogramokb\u00f3l \u00e9rkez\u0151 t\u00e9nyleges megrendel\u00e9sek \u00e9rdemelnek figyelmet.<\/p>\n

Az amerikai f\u00e9lid\u0151s v\u00e1laszt\u00e1sok, a munkaer\u0151piaci adatok \u00e9s az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezeti infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00fajra\u00edrhatj\u00e1k a kamatv\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat. A brit \u00e9s az ausztr\u00e1l kamatd\u00f6nt\u00e9s tov\u00e1bbi jelz\u00e9st adhat arr\u00f3l, mennyire tart\u00f3s a nemzetk\u00f6zi infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1s. Az SPB Befektet\u00e9si Zrt. szak\u00e9rt\u0151ivel tekintse \u00e1t, hogyan hangolhat\u00f3k \u00f6ssze portf\u00f3li\u00f3j\u00e1ban a forint- \u00e9s devizabefektet\u00e9sek, a k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek futamideje \u00e9s a r\u00e9szv\u00e9nykock\u00e1zatok. <\/em><\/strong><\/h5>\n
Keresse tan\u00e1csad\u00f3inkat, \u00e9s alak\u00edtsuk befektet\u00e9seit c\u00e9ljaihoz, id\u0151t\u00e1vj\u00e1hoz \u00e9s kock\u00e1zatv\u00e1llal\u00e1s\u00e1hoz!<\/em><\/strong><\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Az elm\u00falt h\u00e9t legfontosabb \u00fczenete, hogy a jegybanki kamattart\u00e1sb\u00f3l m\u00e9g nem k\u00f6vetkezik laz\u00edt\u00e1s. A Fed, az EKB \u00e9s a jap\u00e1n jegybank egyar\u00e1nt kiv\u00e1rt, mik\u00f6zben a dr\u00e1ga energia, az AI-beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok \u00e9s az emelked\u0151 finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si k\u00f6lts\u00e9gek elt\u00e9r\u0151en alak\u00edtj\u00e1k mozg\u00e1ster\u00fcket. A befektet\u0151k m\u00e1r a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s fenntarthat\u00f3s\u00e1g\u00e1t \u00e9s a v\u00e1llalati beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok megt\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t vizsg\u00e1lj\u00e1k. USA: er\u0151s GDP, s\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9kenyebb fogyaszt\u00e1s, kiv\u00e1r\u00f3…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":3669,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-elemzes"],"yoast_head":"\nHeti Befektet\u0151i Kitekint\u0151: kamatemel\u00e9si sz\u00fcnet ut\u00e1n m\u00e1r szigor\u00edt\u00e1s j\u00f6het - SPB Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Az elm\u00falt h\u00e9t legfontosabb \u00fczenete, hogy a jegybanki kamattart\u00e1sb\u00f3l m\u00e9g nem k\u00f6vetkezik laz\u00edt\u00e1s. 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