{"id":3289,"date":"2025-12-10T10:42:13","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T10:42:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=3289"},"modified":"2025-12-10T10:42:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T10:42:13","slug":"spb-tovabbi-kamatcsokkentest-var-a-piac-a-fed-reszerol-decemberben","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=3289","title":{"rendered":"SPB: Tov\u00e1bbi kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st v\u00e1r a piac a FED r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l decemberben"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1gban tov\u00e1bbra is a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipar jelenti a gazdas\u00e1g h\u00faz\u00f3erej\u00e9t, mik\u00f6zben a feldolgoz\u00f3ipar er\u0151teljes versenyk\u00e9pess\u00e9gi probl\u00e9m\u00e1kkal \u00e9s alacsony megrendel\u00e9s\u00e1llom\u00e1nnyal k\u00fczd. Az Euroz\u00f3na gazdas\u00e1gi helyzete \u00f6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben n\u00e9mileg kedvez\u0151bb, \u00e1m ott is a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3 szektor teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye a meghat\u00e1roz\u00f3. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 ism\u00e9t emelkedni kezdett, de dr\u00e1mai ugr\u00e1s nem v\u00e1rhat\u00f3. A piac nem sz\u00e1m\u00edt tov\u00e1bbi EKB-kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9sre az idei \u00e9vben. Az Euroz\u00f3na gazdas\u00e1ga tov\u00e1bbra is ellen\u00e1ll\u00f3: a mag\u00e1nfogyaszt\u00e1st a feszes munkaer\u0151piac, a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sokat pedig az alacsony finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si k\u00f6lts\u00e9gek t\u00e1mogatj\u00e1k. Az USA feldolgoz\u00f3ipara gyeng\u00e9lkedik, kiv\u00e9telt kiz\u00e1r\u00f3lag a mesters\u00e9ges intelligenci\u00e1hoz kapcsol\u00f3d\u00f3 beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok jelentenek. A munkaer\u0151piac \u00f6sszk\u00e9pe ink\u00e1bb a stabiliz\u00e1ci\u00f3 ir\u00e1ny\u00e1ba tart, j\u00f3llehet a kisv\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1sok jelent\u0151s neh\u00e9zs\u00e9gekkel szembes\u00fclnek. A piac t\u00f6bbs\u00e9ge tov\u00e1bbi kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st v\u00e1r a FED-t\u0151l decemberben. A fogyaszt\u00f3i j\u00f6v\u0151k\u00e9p a kor\u00e1bbiakhoz k\u00e9pest m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelten javult. Rom\u00e1nia a harmadik negyed\u00e9vben l\u00e1tv\u00e1nyos gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9st \u00e9rt el, ugyanakkor ennek hossz\u00fa t\u00e1v\u00fa fenntarthat\u00f3s\u00e1ga er\u0151sen k\u00e9rd\u00e9ses.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g<\/strong><\/p>\n

A PMI indexek alapj\u00e1n a helyzet \u00f6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben nem pozit\u00edv. B\u00e1r a kompozit index \u00e9rt\u00e9ke 50 felett van, ami biztat\u00f3, a feldolgoz\u00f3ipar viszont egy\u00e1ltal\u00e1n nincs j\u00f3 helyzetben, tov\u00e1bbra is er\u0151s probl\u00e9m\u00e1k nehez\u00edtik a szektor teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny\u00e9t. Az \u00fczleti felt\u00e9telek novemberben jelent\u0151sen romlottak, az \u00faj megrendel\u00e9sek \u00e1llom\u00e1nya 10 h\u00f3napja nem l\u00e1tott \u00fctemben esett vissza. A feldolgoz\u00f3ipar versenyk\u00e9pess\u00e9ge rendk\u00edv\u00fcl gyenge, nincs \u00e9rdemi kereslet, \u00e9s export oldalon sem v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 n\u00f6veked\u00e9s. Tov\u00e1bbra is a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3iparnak k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151 az elfogadhat\u00f3 \u00f6sszteljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny. A foglalkoztat\u00e1s az USA-hoz hasonl\u00f3 tendencia szerint tov\u00e1bb cs\u00f6kkent, folytat\u00f3dik a v\u00e1llalati \u00e1tszervez\u00e9sek, le\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9sek id\u0151szaka. Egyre kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 jellemz\u0151 a munkav\u00e1llal\u00f3i szerz\u0151d\u00e9sek hosszabb\u00edt\u00e1sa.<\/p>\n

Euroz\u00f3na<\/strong><\/p>\n

Az Euroz\u00f3na eg\u00e9sz\u00e9t tekintve a PMI-indexek n\u00e9mileg kedvez\u0151bb k\u00e9pet mutatnak, de szint\u00e9n a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3 szektor jelenti a teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny h\u00faz\u00f3erej\u00e9t. A n\u00f6veked\u00e9s \u00cdrorsz\u00e1g eset\u00e9ben a legl\u00e1tv\u00e1nyosabb: a fejl\u0151d\u00e9s \u00fcteme 3,5 \u00e9ves cs\u00facsot \u00e9rt el. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 ism\u00e9t n\u00f6veked\u00e9snek indult, azonban az ebb\u0151l ered\u0151 k\u00f6lts\u00e9gt\u00f6bbletet a gy\u00e1rt\u00f3k \u00e9s szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3k nem k\u00edv\u00e1nj\u00e1k a fogyaszt\u00f3kra terhelni az esetleges piacveszt\u00e9s kock\u00e1zata miatt. Ez viszont a profitmardzsok cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9t hozhatja mag\u00e1val.<\/p>\n

Az EKB r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l az idei \u00e9vre nem v\u00e1r \u00fajabb kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st a piac. B\u00e1r a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3 szektort \u00e9rint\u0151 infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 okot adhat az aggodalomra, de ez \u00f6nmag\u00e1ban nem indokolja a v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1st. V\u00e1rhat\u00f3an teh\u00e1t maradnak az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamatok tov\u00e1bbra is. A n\u00e9met hozamok viszont ism\u00e9t megugrottak, amit mindenk\u00e9ppen \u00e9rdemes figyelembe venni. Hossz\u00fa t\u00e1von nem sz\u00e1m\u00edthatunk arra, hogy az \u00e1rfolyamok n\u00f6veked\u00e9snek indulnak. R\u00f6vid t\u00e1von biztosan nem t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik enyh\u00fcl\u00e9s, k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1von esetleg az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 hat\u00e1s\u00e1ra ism\u00e9t elmozdulhatunk a kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s ir\u00e1ny\u00e1ba. Val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg tart\u00f3san magas hozamokat fogunk l\u00e1tni.<\/p>\n

A CPI adatok alapj\u00e1n az Euroz\u00f3n\u00e1ban az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 gyorsult valamelyest, azonban ez csak r\u00f6vid t\u00e1v\u00fa emelked\u00e9s, amelynek h\u00e1tter\u00e9ben els\u0151sorban a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok, illetve az energia \u00e1r\u00e1nak n\u00f6veked\u00e9se \u00e1ll. A szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3 szektort \u00e9rint\u0151 3,5%-os infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an vissza fog fordulni decemberben. A CPI dr\u00e1mai megugr\u00e1s\u00e1ra nincs nagy es\u00e9ly. A jelenlegi \u00e1llapot ink\u00e1bb \u00e1tmeneti, a 2%-os infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg tarthat\u00f3 lesz. K\u00edna exporttev\u00e9kenys\u00e9ge egyre ink\u00e1bb Eur\u00f3pa ir\u00e1ny\u00e1ba fordul az amerikai v\u00e1mrendeletek miatt.<\/p>\n

A kor\u00e1bbi becsl\u00e9sekhez k\u00e9pest er\u0151sebb lett az Euroz\u00f3na Q3 GDP adat. A teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny h\u00faz\u00f3erej\u00e9t els\u0151sorban a fogyaszt\u00e1s, illetve a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok jelentik. \u00d6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben meglep\u0151en ellen\u00e1ll\u00f3 az Euroz\u00f3na, a mag\u00e1nfogyaszt\u00e1st feszes munkaer\u0151piac t\u00e1mogatja. Az alacsony finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si k\u00f6lts\u00e9gek kedveznek a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1soknak. A munkaer\u0151piacon 4%-kal n\u00f6vekedtek a kompenz\u00e1ci\u00f3s szintek. Ha ez a tendencia tart\u00f3s marad, a b\u00e9remelked\u00e9si szintek fokozatos m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151d\u00e9s\u00e9re lehet majd sz\u00e1m\u00edtani, ami a teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nyre is hat\u00e1ssal lehet.<\/p>\n

USA<\/strong><\/p>\n

A feldolgoz\u00f3ipari PMI index 9 h\u00f3napja zsugorodik, er\u0151teljesen esik vissza a megrendel\u00e9s \u00e1llom\u00e1ny. Az importv\u00e1mok nyom\u00e1st gyakorolnak a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gekre \u00e9s a keresletre egyar\u00e1nt. Az egyetlen j\u00f3l teljes\u00edt\u0151 szegmens a mesters\u00e9ges intelligenci\u00e1hoz kapcsol\u00f3d\u00f3 beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok k\u00f6re. A t\u00f6bbi ter\u00fcletet jelent\u0151s m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben visszah\u00fazza a kisz\u00e1m\u00edthatatlan v\u00e1mk\u00f6rnyezet. A nagyobb bizonytalans\u00e1g magasabb \u00e1rszintet eredm\u00e9nyez, az \u00faj megrendel\u00e9s \u00e1llom\u00e1ny tart\u00f3san 50 pont alatt \u00e1ll.<\/p>\n

A munkaer\u0151piaci ADP adatok azt mutatj\u00e1k, hogy els\u0151sorban a kisv\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1sok ker\u00fcltek neh\u00e9z helyzetbe, melynek eredm\u00e9nyek\u00e9nt t\u00f6bb, mint k\u00e9t \u00e9ve nem l\u00e1tott m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben cs\u00f6kkentett\u00e9k a foglalkoztatottak sz\u00e1m\u00e1t. Mindek\u00f6zben a hivatalos adatok, amelyek glob\u00e1lisan, sz\u00e9les horizonton vizsg\u00e1lj\u00e1k a munkaer\u0151piacot, ezzel ellent\u00e9tes k\u00e9pet mutatnak. Az els\u0151 seg\u00e9lyk\u00e9r\u0151k sz\u00e1ma 3 \u00e9ve a legalacsonyabb szintre ker\u00fclt. Az l\u00e1that\u00f3, hogy a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fcliek nehezen tudnak \u00faj \u00e1ll\u00e1st szerezni, viszont a c\u00e9gek nem sz\u00edvesen \u00e9p\u00edtik le a m\u00e1r \u00e1llom\u00e1nyban lev\u0151 dolgoz\u00f3kat.<\/p>\n

A FED folyamatosan figyeli a munkaer\u0151piacot, amely egyre ink\u00e1bb a stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3d\u00e1s fel\u00e9 kezd \u00e1tfordulni, dr\u00e1mai \u00f6sszezuhan\u00e1sra nem sz\u00e1m\u00edtunk. Mindazon\u00e1ltal a piac jelent\u0151s r\u00e9sze tov\u00e1bbi kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st v\u00e1r a decemberi kamatd\u00f6nt\u0151 \u00fcl\u00e9st\u0151l. B\u00e1r a munkaer\u0151piaci helyzet nem felt\u00e9tlen\u00fcl indokoln\u00e1, az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adatok alapj\u00e1n van helye az \u00fajabb kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9snek. A re\u00e1lfogyaszt\u00e1s cs\u00f6kken\u0151 tendenci\u00e1t mutat.<\/p>\n

A fogyaszt\u00f3i szentiment \u00e9rt\u00e9ke valamelyest javult, a korm\u00e1nyzati le\u00e1ll\u00e1s v\u00e9get \u00e9rt, \u00edgy a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok munkaer\u0151piaci kil\u00e1t\u00e1sai valamivel kedvez\u0151bbek. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151dtek, valamelyest pozit\u00edvabb az \u00f6sszk\u00e9p a fogyaszt\u00f3i j\u00f6v\u0151k\u00e9p tekintet\u00e9ben. Ez az enyhe optimizmus azonban feltehet\u0151en \u00e1tmeneti \u00e1llapotot jelent.<\/p>\n

Az olajpiacon jelenleg ink\u00e1bb felfel\u00e9 hajt\u00f3 er\u0151k \u00e9rv\u00e9nyes\u00fclnek.<\/p>\n

Rom\u00e1nia<\/strong><\/p>\n

A gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s Q3-ban meglep\u0151en kedvez\u0151 k\u00e9pet mutat, amely els\u0151sorban a mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1g, valamint az \u00e9p\u00edt\u0151ipar teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny\u00e9nek k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151. Probl\u00e9m\u00e1t jelenthet viszont, hogy els\u0151sorban Eur\u00f3pai Uni\u00f3s forr\u00e1sb\u00f3l finansz\u00edrozott beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok tartj\u00e1k stabilan a gazdas\u00e1got, amely egy mesters\u00e9ges, ugyanakkor t\u00f6r\u00e9keny \u00e1llapot. A mag\u00e1nfogyaszt\u00e1s tov\u00e1bbra is gyenge l\u00e1bakon \u00e1ll. A rom\u00e1n kiskereskedelem \u00e9s a fogyaszt\u00f3i bizalom helyzete rendk\u00edv\u00fcl aggaszt\u00f3. Az ink\u00e1bb pesszimizmusba hajl\u00f3 j\u00f6v\u0151k\u00e9p miatt tov\u00e1bbra is kisebb hangs\u00falyt javaslunk adni a rom\u00e1n k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyeknek a portfoli\u00f3ban.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1gban tov\u00e1bbra is a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipar jelenti a gazdas\u00e1g h\u00faz\u00f3erej\u00e9t, mik\u00f6zben a feldolgoz\u00f3ipar er\u0151teljes versenyk\u00e9pess\u00e9gi probl\u00e9m\u00e1kkal \u00e9s alacsony megrendel\u00e9s\u00e1llom\u00e1nnyal k\u00fczd. Az Euroz\u00f3na gazdas\u00e1gi helyzete \u00f6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben n\u00e9mileg kedvez\u0151bb, \u00e1m ott is a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3 szektor teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye a meghat\u00e1roz\u00f3. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 ism\u00e9t emelkedni kezdett, de dr\u00e1mai ugr\u00e1s nem v\u00e1rhat\u00f3. A piac nem sz\u00e1m\u00edt tov\u00e1bbi EKB-kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9sre az idei \u00e9vben. Az…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3290,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-elemzes"],"yoast_head":"\nSPB: Tov\u00e1bbi kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st v\u00e1r a piac a FED r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l decemberben - SPB Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1gban tov\u00e1bbra is a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipar jelenti a gazdas\u00e1g h\u00faz\u00f3erej\u00e9t, mik\u00f6zben a feldolgoz\u00f3ipar er\u0151teljes versenyk\u00e9pess\u00e9gi probl\u00e9m\u00e1kkal \u00e9s alacsony megrendel\u00e9s\u00e1llom\u00e1nnyal k\u00fczd. 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