{"id":2748,"date":"2024-07-16T15:26:29","date_gmt":"2024-07-16T15:26:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=2748"},"modified":"2024-07-16T15:26:29","modified_gmt":"2024-07-16T15:26:29","slug":"spb-kiemelten-jol-teljesit-kina-az-elektromos-autok-piacan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=2748","title":{"rendered":"SPB: Kiemelten j\u00f3l teljes\u00edt K\u00edna az elektromos aut\u00f3k piac\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"

A legfontosabb adatok az elm\u00falt h\u00e9ten az USA-b\u00f3l \u00e9rkeztek. A friss infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adat kedvez\u0151bben alakult a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest, \u00edgy a piac d\u00f6nt\u0151 t\u00f6bbs\u00e9ge \u00fagy v\u00e9li, hogy a szeptemberi els\u0151 FED kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9snek nem lesz akad\u00e1lya. B\u00e1r a maginfl\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9s a termel\u0151i \u00e1rindex tekintet\u00e9ben kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 kedvez\u0151 a tendencia, azonban v\u00e9lhet\u0151en ez sem fogja negat\u00edvan befoly\u00e1solni a FED d\u00f6nt\u00e9s\u00e9t. Mind k\u00ednai infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adat, mind a GDP \u00e9rt\u00e9ke elmaradt a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokt\u00f3l, amely arra utal, hogy a kereslet tov\u00e1bbra is akadozik. Az elemz\u0151k szerint magas a defl\u00e1ci\u00f3 es\u00e9lye, \u00e9s a f\u0151 k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, hogy a k\u00f6zponti vezet\u00e9s milyen l\u00e9p\u00e9seket tervez a k\u00f6zelj\u00f6v\u0151ben a gazdas\u00e1g \u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00edt\u00e9se \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben. A China Balance of Trade adat viszont komoly meglepet\u00e9s okozott a piacon, jelent\u0151sen fel\u00fclm\u00falva a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat. A k\u00f6tv\u00e9nypiacot tekintve kiegyens\u00falyozott a helyzet, mind az amerikai, mind a n\u00e9met 10 \u00e9ves \u00e1llampap\u00edrok hozama j\u00f6n visszafel\u00e9, k\u00f6vetve az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 alakul\u00e1s\u00e1t. Az EUR-USD \u00e1rfolyam jelenlegi alakul\u00e1sa j\u00f3t\u00e9kony hat\u00e1ssal van a deviz\u00e1kra, \u00edgy a forintra is. Az olajpiacot illet\u0151en tov\u00e1bbra is a kereslet a meghat\u00e1roz\u00f3, jelent\u0151s v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s nem v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 a k\u00f6zelj\u00f6v\u0151ben. <\/strong><\/p>\n

A k\u00ednai infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adat<\/strong> 0,2% lett, amely n\u00e9mileg elmaradt a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokt\u00f3l. \u00c9rt\u00e9k\u00e9t els\u0151sorban az \u00e9lelmiszer\u00e1rak es\u00e9se h\u00fazta lefel\u00e9. Ez az elemz\u0151k szerint j\u00f3l mutatja, hogy a kereslet tov\u00e1bbra is akadozik, a defl\u00e1ci\u00f3 es\u00e9lye magas. Szint\u00e9n kiemel\u00e9sre ker\u00fclt az elemz\u0151k r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l, hogy a k\u00f6zponti korm\u00e1nyzat tov\u00e1bbra is ink\u00e1bb a befektet\u00e9sek \u00f6szt\u00f6nz\u00e9s\u00e9t prioriz\u00e1lja, szemben az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 probl\u00e9mak\u00f6r\u00e9vel, illetve az e m\u00f6g\u00f6tt \u00e1ll\u00f3 kereslet \u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9vel. Amennyiben ebben nem t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s, \u00fagy val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edthet\u0151, hogy az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 tov\u00e1bbra sem indul el a piacok sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra kedvez\u0151 ir\u00e1nyba.<\/p>\n

A k\u00ednai termel\u0151i \u00e1rindexben<\/strong> viszont l\u00e1thatunk n\u00e9mi v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1st. A v\u00e1rt 1,4%-hoz k\u00e9pest mind\u00f6ssze 0,8%-os visszaes\u00e9s t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt, amely a legkisebb m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s az elm\u00falt 11 h\u00f3napot tekintve. Mindez azt mutatja, hogy elindulhatott a v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s input oldalon, ennek azonban egyel\u0151re nem tulajdon\u00edtanak nagy jelent\u0151s\u00e9get az elemz\u0151k.<\/p>\n

A k\u00ednai GDP<\/strong> 4,7-es \u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9vel cs\u00f6kkent az el\u0151z\u0151 id\u0151szakhoz k\u00e9pest. A f\u0151 k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, hogy a k\u00f6zponti vezet\u00e9s r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l milyen gazdas\u00e1g\u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00edt\u0151 stimulus v\u00e1rhat\u00f3, \u00e9s vajon lesz-e politika v\u00e1lt\u00e1s ebben a tekintetben?<\/p>\n

Komoly meglepet\u00e9st okozott a piacon a China Balance of Trade<\/strong> adat, amely l\u00e9nyegesen jobb lett a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest. Igen sz\u00e9p eredm\u00e9ny annak ellen\u00e9re, hogy az aut\u00f3elad\u00e1sok Year to Date adatai okoznak n\u00e9mi torz\u00edt\u00e1st a t\u00f6rt\u00e9netben, mivel az el\u0151z\u0151 \u00e9vi adathoz k\u00e9pest hatalmas m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben, k\u00f6zel 20%-kal emelkedtek. Ez f\u0151k\u00e9nt az orsz\u00e1g \u00f3ri\u00e1si t\u00e9rnyer\u00e9s\u00e9nek k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151 elektromos aut\u00f3k tekintet\u00e9ben mind a fejlett, mind a fejl\u0151d\u0151 piacokon. Az aut\u00f3elad\u00e1sok sz\u00e1m\u00e1t a jelent\u0151s m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 el\u0151sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si tranzakci\u00f3k is n\u00f6velik, ett\u0151l f\u00fcggetlen\u00fcl az adat mark\u00e1ns, \u00e9s kellemes hangulatot teremtett a k\u00ednai \u00e9rt\u00e9kpap\u00edrok sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra.<\/p>\n

A h\u00e9t legjelent\u0151sebb esem\u00e9nye k\u00e9ts\u00e9gk\u00edv\u00fcl a friss USA infl\u00e1ci\u00f3<\/strong>s adat volt. \u00c9ves szinten 3,3% volt az el\u0151z\u0151 h\u00f3napra n\u00e9zve, amely most 3%-ra cs\u00f6kkent, fel\u00fclm\u00falva az el\u0151zetes v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat. Ennek h\u00e1tter\u00e9ben az \u00fczemanyag\u00e1rak, valamint a lakhat\u00e1si k\u00f6lts\u00e9gek tov\u00e1bbi cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se \u00e1llhat. A kedvez\u0151 adat egyre jobban megalapozza a szeptemberi 25 b\u00e1zispontos kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st a FED r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l, nem v\u00e9letlen, hogy ezen \u00e1ll\u00e1spont t\u00e1mogatotts\u00e1ga 70%-r\u00f3l 90%-ra n\u0151tt. E tekintetben teh\u00e1t egyre nagyobb a bizonyoss\u00e1g a piac r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l. A pozit\u00edv hangulatot a maginfl\u00e1ci\u00f3<\/strong> v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pesti enyh\u00e9bb cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se sem t\u00f6rte le.<\/p>\n

A termel\u0151i \u00e1rindex<\/strong> eg\u00e9szen m\u00e1s k\u00e9pet mutat a k\u00f6zelm\u00falthoz k\u00e9pest, igazodik ahhoz a tendenci\u00e1hoz, amit K\u00edna eset\u00e9ben is l\u00e1ttunk. A szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok \u00e1rszintje emelkedik, jelen esetben az eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok hat\u00e1sa volt a legnagyobb az indexre n\u00e9zve. Az elemz\u0151k \u00e9s befektet\u0151k egy\u00f6ntet\u0171 v\u00e9lem\u00e9nye viszont az, hogy az \u00e1rindext\u0151l f\u00fcggetlen\u00fcl az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 elleni harcban nyer\u00e9sre \u00e1llunk, \u00edgy szeptemberben nem lesz akad\u00e1lya a kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9snek.<\/p>\n

A munkaer\u0151piac<\/strong>ot illet\u0151en nem t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt jelent\u0151s v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s, tov\u00e1bbra is fesz\u00edtett a piac, mark\u00e1ns trendet egyel\u0151re nem lehet kiolvasni az adatokb\u00f3l.<\/p>\n

Visszaes\u00e9st l\u00e1thatunk a Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index<\/strong> \u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9ben. A fogyaszt\u00f3i magatart\u00e1st feltehet\u0151en m\u00e9g mindig jelent\u0151sen befoly\u00e1solja az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 okozta sokkhat\u00e1s, \u00edgy a fogyaszt\u00e1s tov\u00e1bbra is igen visszafogott. Ezen fel\u00fcl a n\u00f6vekv\u0151 politikai bizonytalans\u00e1g is egyre ink\u00e1bb hat\u00e1ssal van a fogyaszt\u00f3k viselked\u00e9s\u00e9re.<\/p>\n

Az amerikai 10 \u00e9ves \u00e1llampap\u00edr<\/strong> hozam\u00e1t az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adat kedvez\u0151tlen\u00fcl befoly\u00e1solta: 4,30-as \u00e9rt\u00e9kr\u0151l 4,20 k\u00f6rny\u00e9k\u00e9re cs\u00f6kkent, amelyet kis kileng\u00e9sekkel tov\u00e1bbra is tart.<\/p>\n

A n\u00e9met 10 \u00e9ves \u00e1llampap\u00edr<\/strong> hozama j\u00f6n visszafel\u00e9, 2,57-r\u0151l 2,47-re cs\u00f6kkent. L\u00e1tva a politikai fesz\u00fclts\u00e9geket, j\u00f3 h\u00edr, hogy a k\u00f6tv\u00e9nypiacon a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1soknak megfelel\u0151en alakulnak a dolgok.<\/p>\n

A n\u00e9met infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adat<\/strong>ot az energia- \u00e9s \u00e9lelmiszer\u00e1rak cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se h\u00fazza vissza h\u00e9tr\u0151l-h\u00e9tre. Az ezzel szemben hat\u00f3 er\u0151 pedig a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok \u00e1r\u00e1nak emelked\u00e9se.<\/p>\n

Az EUR-USD \u00e1rfolyam<\/strong> azt mutatja, hogy be\u00e1raz\u00f3dnak az esem\u00e9nyek az USA-ban, a doll\u00e1r adja fel a poz\u00edci\u00f3t, amely j\u00f3t\u00e9kony hat\u00e1ssal van a deviz\u00e1kra, \u00edgy a forintra is.<\/p>\n

Az olajpiac<\/strong>on korrekci\u00f3t l\u00e1thatunk a nagy kileng\u00e9st k\u00f6vet\u0151en, az \u00e1rfolyamban sz\u00e1mottev\u0151 v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s nincs, jelenleg a 80-as szinten \u00e1ll. A h\u00e1bor\u00fas kock\u00e1zatok valamelyest cs\u00f6kkentek a keleti ter\u00fcleteken. K\u00edna tov\u00e1bbra sem tud olyan m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 keresletet mutatni, mint azt kor\u00e1bban v\u00e1rt\u00e1k. Jelent\u0151s v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s a k\u00f6zelj\u00f6v\u0151ben nem v\u00e1rhat\u00f3, v\u00e1ltozatlanul keresleti piacr\u00f3l besz\u00e9lhet\u00fcnk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A legfontosabb adatok az elm\u00falt h\u00e9ten az USA-b\u00f3l \u00e9rkeztek. A friss infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adat kedvez\u0151bben alakult a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest, \u00edgy a piac d\u00f6nt\u0151 t\u00f6bbs\u00e9ge \u00fagy v\u00e9li, hogy a szeptemberi els\u0151 FED kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9snek nem lesz akad\u00e1lya. B\u00e1r a maginfl\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9s a termel\u0151i \u00e1rindex tekintet\u00e9ben kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 kedvez\u0151 a tendencia, azonban v\u00e9lhet\u0151en ez sem fogja negat\u00edvan befoly\u00e1solni a FED…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2749,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[52],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-portfolioblogger"],"yoast_head":"\nSPB: Kiemelten j\u00f3l teljes\u00edt K\u00edna az elektromos aut\u00f3k piac\u00e1n - SPB Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A legfontosabb adatok az elm\u00falt h\u00e9ten az USA-b\u00f3l \u00e9rkeztek. A friss infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adat kedvez\u0151bben alakult a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest, \u00edgy a piac d\u00f6nt\u0151 t\u00f6bbs\u00e9ge \u00fagy v\u00e9li, hogy a szeptemberi els\u0151 FED kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9snek nem lesz akad\u00e1lya. B\u00e1r a maginfl\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9s a termel\u0151i \u00e1rindex tekintet\u00e9ben kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 kedvez\u0151 a tendencia, azonban v\u00e9lhet\u0151en ez sem fogja negat\u00edvan befoly\u00e1solni a FED d\u00f6nt\u00e9s\u00e9t. Mind k\u00ednai infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adat, mind a GDP \u00e9rt\u00e9ke elmaradt a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokt\u00f3l, amely arra utal, hogy a kereslet tov\u00e1bbra is akadozik.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=2748\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SPB: Kiemelten j\u00f3l teljes\u00edt K\u00edna az elektromos aut\u00f3k piac\u00e1n\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A legfontosabb adatok az elm\u00falt h\u00e9ten az USA-b\u00f3l \u00e9rkeztek. A friss infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adat kedvez\u0151bben alakult a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest, \u00edgy a piac d\u00f6nt\u0151 t\u00f6bbs\u00e9ge \u00fagy v\u00e9li, hogy a szeptemberi els\u0151 FED kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9snek nem lesz akad\u00e1lya. B\u00e1r a maginfl\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9s a termel\u0151i \u00e1rindex tekintet\u00e9ben kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 kedvez\u0151 a tendencia, azonban v\u00e9lhet\u0151en ez sem fogja negat\u00edvan befoly\u00e1solni a FED d\u00f6nt\u00e9s\u00e9t. 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