{"id":2661,"date":"2024-05-28T17:11:45","date_gmt":"2024-05-28T17:11:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=2661"},"modified":"2024-05-28T17:11:45","modified_gmt":"2024-05-28T17:11:45","slug":"spb-vegehez-kozelithet-a-nemet-gazdasag-melyrepulese","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=2661","title":{"rendered":"SPB: V\u00e9g\u00e9hez k\u00f6zel\u00edthet a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g m\u00e9lyrep\u00fcl\u00e9se"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Az <strong>Euroz\u00f3n\u00e1t<\/strong> illet\u0151en a <strong>Composite PMI<\/strong> index \u00e9rt\u00e9ke igen kedvez\u0151en alakult, \u00e9s \u00fagy t\u0171nik, hogy a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g is kezd kil\u00e1balni a legnehezebb id\u0151szak\u00e1b\u00f3l. A piac j\u00faniusra v\u00e1rja az els\u0151 <strong>kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st az ECB<\/strong> r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l. Jelent\u0151s m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben fel\u00fclm\u00falta a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat az amerikai <strong>Composite PMI<\/strong> adat, a piac r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l azonban fokozott \u00f3vatoss\u00e1g tapasztalhat\u00f3 az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t illet\u0151 bizonytalan kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok kapcs\u00e1n. Az elemz\u0151k 3,5%-os <strong>USA GDP<\/strong> n\u00f6veked\u00e9st prognosztiz\u00e1lnak, a pontos adat a j\u00f6v\u0151 h\u00e9ten \u00e9rkezik majd. Az <strong>olajpiacot<\/strong> v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an tov\u00e1bbra is a keresleti oldal \u00e1rfelhajt\u00f3 hat\u00e1sa fogja meghat\u00e1rozni, \u00edgy ak\u00e1r a jelenlegi 78-as \u00e1rfolyamn\u00e1l magasabb \u00e9rt\u00e9keket is el\u00e9rhet a hord\u00f3nk\u00e9nti \u00e1r. A piac jelent\u0151s r\u00e9sze nem v\u00e1r v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1st a szeptemberi <strong>FED kamatd\u00f6nt\u00e9si \u00fcl\u00e9s<\/strong>t\u0151l, \u00e9s folyamatosan cs\u00f6kken annak az \u00e1ll\u00e1spontnak a t\u00e1mogatotts\u00e1ga, hogy az idei \u00e9vben elmozdulunk az 525-550 s\u00e1vb\u00f3l. 4,5%-ra ugrott fel a <strong>10 \u00e9ves amerikai \u00e1llamk\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek<\/strong> hozamg\u00f6rb\u00e9je, ezzel a rem\u00e9nyek szerint a hozamszint el\u00e9rte a tet\u0151pontj\u00e1t, ahonnan megkezd\u0151dhet majd a cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>A <strong>n\u00e9met GDP adat<\/strong> alapj\u00e1n \u00fagy t\u0171nik, hogy az orsz\u00e1g gazdas\u00e1ga a legnehezebb id\u0151szak\u00e1n t\u00fal van. A piaci v\u00e9leked\u00e9s szerint a kil\u00e1t\u00e1stalans\u00e1g az els\u0151 negyed\u00e9v ut\u00e1n kezd enyh\u00fclni, az elemz\u0151i hangulat jelent\u0151sen optimist\u00e1bb\u00e1 v\u00e1lt. Az el\u0151z\u0151 id\u0151szakra vonatkoz\u00f3 adat \u00e9ves viszonylatban -0,2% volt, amely az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9seknek megfelel\u0151en ezen a szinten is maradt. A jelenlegi g\u00f6rbe ugyan m\u00e9g nem mutat semmi konkr\u00e9tumot, de olyan \u00e1llapotot sugall, hogy az idei \u00e9v j\u00f3l alakulhat N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra. Az adatok m\u00f6g\u00e9 tekintve k\u00e9t fontos dolgot l\u00e1thatunk. Egyr\u00e9szt a tavalyi GDP -0,2%-os, el\u0151zetes megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9s alapj\u00e1n megadott \u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9t levitt\u00e9k -0,5%-ra, \u00edgy optikailag kedvez\u0151bb, a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat meghalad\u00f3 k\u00e9pet tudott mutatni a mostani adat. M\u00e1sr\u00e9szt az \u00e9p\u00edt\u0151ipar teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye jelent\u0151s m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben megugrott, 2,7%-kal magasabbra ker\u00fclt, mint kor\u00e1bban. Az enyhe t\u00e9lnek k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151en az \u00e9p\u00edtkez\u00e9sek nem torpantak meg az id\u0151j\u00e1r\u00e1s miatt, illetve jelenleg nagy m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171, \u00e1llami finansz\u00edroz\u00e1s\u00fa hadiipari beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok indultak el a szektorban. Mindemellett az export tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g is j\u00f3l alakult az elm\u00falt id\u0151szakban N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra. \u00d6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben a piac sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra teh\u00e1t a mostani, -0,2%-os GDP eredm\u00e9ny pozit\u00edvnak tekinthet\u0151.<\/p>\n<p>Az <strong>Euroz\u00f3na Composite PMI-index<\/strong> \u00e9rt\u00e9ke mind az el\u0151z\u0151 id\u0151szakhoz, mind a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest j\u00f3 lett, a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3-, illetve feldolgoz\u00f3ipari szektor egyar\u00e1nt sz\u00e9p teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nyt mutatott a r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban. B\u00e1r Franciaorsz\u00e1g versenyk\u00e9pess\u00e9gi szempontb\u00f3l kedvez\u0151bb helyzetben van, mint N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g, az aktu\u00e1lis adatok a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1gr\u00f3l mutatnak optikailag pozit\u00edvabb k\u00e9pet. Ez nem jelenti azonban azt, hogy Franciaorsz\u00e1g l\u00e1tv\u00e1nyosan neh\u00e9z helyzetbe ker\u00fclt volna, ink\u00e1bb arr\u00f3l van sz\u00f3, hogy az eddigi rendk\u00edv\u00fcl gyenge n\u00e9met teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nyhez k\u00e9pest egy enyh\u00e9bb elmozdul\u00e1s is mark\u00e1nsabb sz\u00ednben t\u0171nik fel. Az Euroz\u00f3n\u00e1t illet\u0151en teh\u00e1t v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an optimista megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9st kapunk majd az elemz\u0151k r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l, \u00e9s a jelen adatok alapj\u00e1n nem l\u00e1tszik semmilyen akad\u00e1lya annak, hogy a j\u00faniusi id\u0151szakban megt\u00f6rt\u00e9nhessen az els\u0151 kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s az ECB r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l.<\/p>\n<p>Az <strong>USA Composite PMI<\/strong> adat meglepte a piaci r\u00e9sztvev\u0151ket: az el\u0151z\u0151 id\u0151szak 51,3-mas \u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9hez k\u00e9pest 54,4-es adatot kaptunk, amely jelent\u0151sen fel\u00fclm\u00falja az 51,1-es v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat. Ezzel az eredm\u00e9nnyel az index k\u00e9t \u00e9ves cs\u00facsra ugrott, \u00e9s ehhez a legnagyobb m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipari szektor sz\u00e1rnyal\u00e1sa j\u00e1rult hozz\u00e1. Ami viszont aggaszt\u00f3 lehet a k\u00e9s\u0151bbiekre n\u00e9zve, hogy \u00e9rz\u00e9kelhet\u0151 alapanyag\u00e1r-emelked\u00e9s van a rendszerben, amely emelked\u0151 PPI, illetve CPI tendenci\u00e1t gener\u00e1lhat a k\u00f6zelj\u00f6v\u0151ben. Ez n\u00e9mileg nyomasztja a piacot, \u00e9s jelent\u0151sen visszavetette a kock\u00e1zatv\u00e1llal\u00e1si kedvet, Risk-Off \u00fczemm\u00f3d kezd\u0151d\u00f6tt. Az index kedvez\u0151 alakul\u00e1s\u00e1nak olvasata teh\u00e1t kett\u0151s: egyr\u00e9szt az amerikai gazdas\u00e1g stabilit\u00e1s\u00e1t mutatja, m\u00e1sr\u00e9szr\u0151l viszont m\u00e9g fokozottabb \u00f3vatoss\u00e1g lesz \u00e9rz\u00e9kelhet\u0151 a befektet\u0151k r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l.<\/p>\n<p>A <strong>tart\u00f3s fogyaszt\u00e1si cikkek<\/strong> <strong>megrendel\u00e9s-\u00e1llom\u00e1nya <\/strong>0,7% -ot mutat, teh\u00e1t nem esett olyan m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben vissza, mint az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek alapj\u00e1n v\u00e1rtuk. Az l\u00e1that\u00f3, hogy a v\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1sok intenz\u00edven szerzik be az \u00e1ll\u00f3 eszk\u00f6z\u00f6ket, \u00e9s a megrendel\u00e9s-\u00e1llom\u00e1ny h\u00f3napr\u00f3l-h\u00f3napra n\u00f6vekszik a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest, \u00e9s viszonylag stabilnak tekinthet\u0151 jelenleg.<\/p>\n<p>A j\u00f6v\u0151 heti GDP adatot megel\u0151z\u0151en \u00e9rdemes egy pillant\u00e1st vetni az <strong>Atlanta GDPNow<\/strong> adatra, amely alapj\u00e1n 3,5%-os GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9sre sz\u00e1m\u00edthatunk az USA-t illet\u0151en.<\/p>\n<p>Az <strong>olajpiac<\/strong> tekintet\u00e9ben messze meghaladta a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat az inventory-k \u00e1llapota. Az olaj hord\u00f3nk\u00e9nti \u00e1rfolyama heti viszonylatban cs\u00f6kken\u0151 p\u00e1ly\u00e1ra \u00e1llt. A piac a j\u00faniusi OPEC+ tal\u00e1lkoz\u00f3ra figyel, mivel az eredeti terv szerint j\u00fanius v\u00e9g\u00e9ig sz\u00f3lt a k\u00edn\u00e1lat drasztikus cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9se 2,2 milli\u00f3 hord\u00f3\/nap mennyis\u00e9gre. Egyel\u0151re azonban nincs arra utal\u00f3 jel, hogy ez megv\u00e1ltozna, \u00edgy v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an a tov\u00e1bbiakban is ink\u00e1bb keresleti piacr\u00f3l besz\u00e9lhet\u00fcnk majd. Az \u00e1rfolyam jelenleg 78 k\u00f6rny\u00e9k\u00e9n van, de a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 id\u0151szakban a keresleti oldali \u00e1rfelhajt\u00e1snak k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151en val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg enn\u00e9l magasabb \u00e1rakat l\u00e1thatunk majd.<\/p>\n<p>A <strong>FED kamatv\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok<\/strong> tekintet\u00e9ben a piac fele nem v\u00e1r semmilyen v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1st szeptemberre. A friss adatok \u2014 els\u0151sorban a PMI-index \u2014 tov\u00e1bb er\u0151s\u00edtett\u00e9k azt az \u00e1ll\u00e1spontot, hogy szeptemberben m\u00e9g a jelenlegi, 525-550-es s\u00e1vban maradunk. A legoptimist\u00e1bb becsl\u00e9sek is legfeljebb 25 b\u00e1zispontos cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st j\u00f3solnak decemberre, a piac jelent\u0151s r\u00e9sze azonban m\u00e9g ezt sem tartja val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171nek. \u00dagy t\u0171nik, a FED v\u00e1rakoz\u00f3 \u00e1ll\u00e1sponton van, \u00e9s a kommunik\u00e1ci\u00f3j\u00e1ban is ezt az \u00f3vatos hozz\u00e1\u00e1ll\u00e1st k\u00f6veti. Az alapanyagok ter\u00e9n sz\u00e1mos helyen kapacit\u00e1si probl\u00e9m\u00e1k \u00e1llnak fenn, amely jelent\u0151sen megnehez\u00edtheti a termel\u00e9st. Ennek ak\u00e1r az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3ra n\u00e9zve is kedvez\u0151tlen hat\u00e1sa lehet a k\u00e9s\u0151bbiekben.<\/p>\n<p>A <strong>10 \u00e9ves amerikai \u00e1llamk\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek<\/strong> hozamg\u00f6rb\u00e9je 4,5%-ra ugrott fel, a k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, hogy ezzel el\u00e9rte a plafont vagy j\u00f6hetnek m\u00e9g kellemetlen meglepet\u00e9sek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az Euroz\u00f3n\u00e1t illet\u0151en a Composite PMI index \u00e9rt\u00e9ke igen kedvez\u0151en alakult, \u00e9s \u00fagy t\u0171nik, hogy a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g is kezd kil\u00e1balni a legnehezebb id\u0151szak\u00e1b\u00f3l. A piac j\u00faniusra v\u00e1rja az els\u0151 kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st az ECB r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l. Jelent\u0151s m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben fel\u00fclm\u00falta a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat az amerikai Composite PMI adat, a piac r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l azonban fokozott \u00f3vatoss\u00e1g tapasztalhat\u00f3 az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t illet\u0151 bizonytalan&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2662,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[52],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-portfolioblogger"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>SPB: V\u00e9g\u00e9hez k\u00f6zel\u00edthet a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g m\u00e9lyrep\u00fcl\u00e9se - SPB Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=2661\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SPB: V\u00e9g\u00e9hez k\u00f6zel\u00edthet a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g m\u00e9lyrep\u00fcl\u00e9se\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Az Euroz\u00f3n\u00e1t illet\u0151en a Composite PMI index \u00e9rt\u00e9ke igen kedvez\u0151en alakult, \u00e9s \u00fagy t\u0171nik, hogy a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g is kezd kil\u00e1balni a legnehezebb id\u0151szak\u00e1b\u00f3l. A piac j\u00faniusra v\u00e1rja az els\u0151 kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9st az ECB r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l. Jelent\u0151s m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben fel\u00fclm\u00falta a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat az amerikai Composite PMI adat, a piac r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l azonban fokozott \u00f3vatoss\u00e1g tapasztalhat\u00f3 az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t illet\u0151 bizonytalan kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok kapcs\u00e1n. Az elemz\u0151k 3,5%-os USA GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9st prognosztiz\u00e1lnak, a pontos adat a j\u00f6v\u0151 h\u00e9ten \u00e9rkezik majd. Az olajpiacot v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an tov\u00e1bbra is a keresleti oldal \u00e1rfelhajt\u00f3 hat\u00e1sa fogja meghat\u00e1rozni, \u00edgy ak\u00e1r a jelenlegi 78-as \u00e1rfolyamn\u00e1l magasabb \u00e9rt\u00e9keket is el\u00e9rhet a hord\u00f3nk\u00e9nti \u00e1r. 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