{"id":2499,"date":"2024-01-31T06:52:51","date_gmt":"2024-01-31T06:52:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=2499"},"modified":"2024-01-31T06:52:51","modified_gmt":"2024-01-31T06:52:51","slug":"spb-sulyos-problemak-nehezitik-az-eurozona-gazdasagi-helyzetet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=2499","title":{"rendered":"SPB: S\u00falyos probl\u00e9m\u00e1k nehez\u00edtik az Euroz\u00f3na gazdas\u00e1gi helyzet\u00e9t"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kedvez\u0151en alakult az Euroz\u00f3na \u00e9s ezen bel\u00fcl a N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g feldolgoz\u00f3ipari teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye, b\u00e1r a sz\u00e1mok h\u00e1tter\u00e9ben els\u0151sorban nem a kereslet n\u00f6veked\u00e9se, hanem a sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si id\u0151k cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se \u00e1ll. A szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipar l\u00e9nyegesen gyeng\u00e9bben teljes\u00edtett a r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban, tov\u00e1bbra is probl\u00e9m\u00e1t jelent az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 szintje. Az ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rendk\u00edv\u00fcl pesszimista v\u00e1llalkoz\u00f3i hangulatr\u00f3l \u00e1rulkodik. Ezzel szemben az USA sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra igen kedvez\u0151en indult az \u00e9v mind a GDP, mind a feldolgoz\u00f3-, illetve szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipar teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye fel\u00fclm\u00falta v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat. A munkaer\u0151piac kifesz\u00edtetts\u00e9ge lassan m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151dik. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 m\u00e9rt\u00e9ke kedvez\u0151en alakult, az amerikai h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok viszont tov\u00e1bbra is komoly bizonytalans\u00e1got \u00e9reznek. Az els\u0151 kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9sek lehets\u00e9ges id\u0151pontj\u00e1r\u00f3l egyel\u0151re megoszlanak a v\u00e9lem\u00e9nyek. Az elemz\u0151k soft landing-re sz\u00e1m\u00edtanak az USA-t illet\u0151en, a korm\u00e1nyzat jelent\u0151s m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 elad\u00f3sod\u00e1sa azonban probl\u00e9m\u00e1kat vethet fel a k\u00e9s\u0151bbiekben. Massz\u00edv hi\u00e1ny mutatkozott az amerikai olajtartal\u00e9kokban, az \u00e1rfolyam lassan k\u00faszik felfel\u00e9. K\u00edna tekintet\u00e9ben tov\u00e1bbra is kock\u00e1zatokkal \u00e9rdemes sz\u00e1molni.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A n\u00e9met feldolgoz\u00f3ipari PMI<\/strong> emelked\u0151 tendenci\u00e1t mutat, a szektor teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye fel\u00fclm\u00falta a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat. Fontos azonban figyelembe venni, hogy ez nem a kereslet er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9nek k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151, hanem els\u0151sorban annak, hogy az ell\u00e1t\u00e1si l\u00e1ncok kezdenek helyre\u00e1llni, \u00edgy a sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si id\u0151k jelent\u0151sen r\u00f6vid\u00fcltek az el\u0151z\u0151 id\u0151szakhoz k\u00e9pest. A kedvez\u0151 sz\u00e1mok ellen\u00e9re teh\u00e1t a megrendel\u00e9s\u00e1llom\u00e1ny egy\u00e1ltal\u00e1n nem n\u00f6vekedett. A n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g \u00e1llapota tov\u00e1bbra sem optim\u00e1lis, az aktivit\u00e1s h\u00e9t h\u00f3napja folyamatosan az Eur\u00f3pai \u00e1tlag alatt marad.<\/p>\n

A n\u00e9met szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipari PMI<\/strong> ink\u00e1bb t\u00fckr\u00f6zi a val\u00f3s helyzetet, mind az el\u0151z\u0151 id\u0151szakhoz, mind a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest kedvez\u0151tlenebb\u00fcl alakult. Ez arra utal, hogy a fogyaszt\u00f3k egyre nagyobb bizonytalans\u00e1gban \u00e9rzik magukat a magasabb fenntart\u00e1si k\u00f6lts\u00e9gek miatt. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9rezteti negat\u00edv hat\u00e1sait, de azt sem hagyhatjuk figyelmen k\u00edv\u00fcl, hogy a kar\u00e1csony \u00e9s a tavaszi nyit\u00e1s k\u00f6z\u00f6tti holt id\u0151szak \u00e1ltal\u00e1ban gyeng\u00e9bb teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nyt mutat.<\/p>\n

Az ifo Business Climate Index for Germany<\/strong> 2020 nyara \u00f3ta nem mutatott ilyen pesszimista k\u00e9pet, folyamatos es\u00e9sben van. A szigor\u00edt\u00f3 int\u00e9zked\u00e9sek, a sztr\u00e1jkok, valamint a V\u00f6r\u00f6s-tengeren kialakult helyzet miatti probl\u00e9m\u00e1k az ell\u00e1t\u00e1si l\u00e1ncban egyar\u00e1nt komoly terhet jelentenek, \u00edgy er\u0151sen val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171, hogy nagyobb visszaes\u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny\u00e9t illet\u0151en, mint azt kor\u00e1bban v\u00e1rtuk.<\/p>\n

Az Euroz\u00f3na feldolgoz\u00f3ipari PMI<\/strong> a n\u00e9met adathoz hasonl\u00f3an kedvez\u0151en alakult, melynek h\u00e1tter\u00e9ben szint\u00e9n a sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si id\u0151k cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9nek h\u00faz\u00f3ereje \u00e1ll, a kereslet tov\u00e1bbra is visszaes\u0151ben van. A szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipar teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye<\/strong> eur\u00f3pai szinten is probl\u00e9m\u00e1kkal k\u00fczd a jelenlegi infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s szintnek k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151en. A V\u00f6r\u00f6s-tenger kritikus szakasz\u00e1t elker\u00fcl\u0151 \u00faj sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si \u00fatvonalak a sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si id\u0151k \u00e9s k\u00f6lts\u00e9gek jelent\u0151s n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9t hozhatj\u00e1k magukkal, amelynek tov\u00e1bbi infl\u00e1ci\u00f3n\u00f6vel\u0151 hat\u00e1sa lehet Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ra n\u00e9zve.<\/p>\n

Az USA gazdas\u00e1gi teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye ezzel szemben igen kedvez\u0151 k\u00e9pet mutat.<\/p>\n

Az amerikai GDP<\/strong> l\u00e9nyegesen kedvez\u0151bb lett a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest, a 2%-os el\u0151rejelz\u00e9ssel szemben a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s v\u00e9g\u00fcl 3,3% lett. A gazdas\u00e1g teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny\u00e9re h\u00e1rom t\u00e9nyez\u0151 is kedvez\u0151 hat\u00e1ssal volt. Egyr\u00e9szt fogyaszt\u00f3i oldalr\u00f3l mer\u00e9sz k\u00f6ltekez\u00e9s volt megfigyelhet\u0151, m\u00e1sr\u00e9szt az er\u0151s export, illetve az eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi szektort \u00e9rint\u0151 korm\u00e1nyzati k\u00f6ltekez\u00e9sek szint\u00e9n jelent\u0151s h\u00faz\u00f3er\u0151t k\u00e9pviseltek.<\/p>\n

Az S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI<\/strong> lassan szinte verhetetlen \u00e1llapotba ker\u00fcl. A 47,9-es el\u0151rejelz\u00e9ssel szemben egy nagyon sz\u00e9p, 50,3-mas \u00e9rt\u00e9ket kaptunk. \u00dagy t\u0171nik, hogy az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 cs\u00f6kken\u0151 tendenci\u00e1ja 2024-ben kedvez\u0151 hat\u00e1ssal van a feldolgoz\u00f3iparra, illetve az \u00faj megrendel\u00e9sek sz\u00e1ma is j\u00f3 \u00fctemben n\u00f6vekszik. Ezzel p\u00e1rhuzamosan a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipar<\/strong> teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye is j\u00f3l halad felfel\u00e9, az \u00fczleti bizalom 20 h\u00f3napos cs\u00facson van, folyamatosan \u00e9rkeznek a megrendel\u00e9sek. Egyel\u0151re mindk\u00e9t adat soft landing-re utal, a korm\u00e1nyzat jelent\u0151s m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 elad\u00f3sod\u00e1sa azonban probl\u00e9m\u00e1kat vethet fel a k\u00e9s\u0151bbiekben.<\/p>\n

A tart\u00f3s fogyaszt\u00e1si cikkek megrendel\u00e9s-\u00e1llom\u00e1ny\u00e1t <\/strong>illet\u0151en nincs jelent\u0151s v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s, minden maradt a semleges z\u00f3n\u00e1ban.<\/p>\n

A munkaer\u0151piac<\/strong> enyhe megugr\u00e1st mutat, de ez m\u00e9g nem az a szint, amit v\u00e1rn\u00e1nk. M\u00e9g mindig nagyon er\u0151s, tov\u00e1bbra is sz\u00e9pen h\u00faz, fesz\u00fclts\u00e9gr\u0151l viszont egyre kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 besz\u00e9lhet\u00fcnk. Egyel\u0151re minden abba az ir\u00e1nyba mutat, hogy a FED-nek lehet\u0151s\u00e9ge lesz arra, hogy a kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9seket min\u00e9l hamarabb meg tudja kezdeni.<\/p>\n

A GfK Consumer Climate<\/strong> index alapj\u00e1n viszont az amerikai h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok tov\u00e1bbra is komoly bizonytalans\u00e1got \u00e9reznek.<\/p>\n

A PCE Price Index<\/strong> \u2014 amelyet a FED is ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3nak tekint infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 tekintet\u00e9ben \u2014 az el\u0151z\u0151 id\u0151szakhoz k\u00e9pest \u00e9s a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest is j\u00f3l alakult, 2,6-os \u00e9rt\u00e9ket mutat.<\/p>\n

A piaci v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok k\u00f6zel\u00edt\u0151leg 50-50%-os ar\u00e1nyban oszlanak meg a FED kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9sek<\/strong> tekintet\u00e9ben. Az optimista \u00e1ll\u00e1spont szerint m\u00e1r a m\u00e1rciusi \u00fcl\u00e9sen megt\u00f6rt\u00e9nhet a 25 b\u00e1zispontos cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s, m\u00edg a piac m\u00e1sik fele nem v\u00e1r m\u00e9g v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1st. A t\u00f6bbs\u00e9g a m\u00e1sodik cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s lehets\u00e9ges id\u0151pontj\u00e1t j\u00faniusra teszi, a piac risk on \u00fczemm\u00f3dban mozog.<\/p>\n

Az ECB kamatd\u00f6nt\u00e9si \u00fcl\u00e9s<\/strong>\u00e9n a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1soknak megfelel\u0151en nem t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s, az elemz\u0151k ny\u00e1r k\u00f6zep\u00e9re j\u00f3solj\u00e1k az els\u0151 kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s lehets\u00e9ges id\u0151pontj\u00e1t. Az int\u00e9zm\u00e9ny kommunik\u00e1ci\u00f3ja alapj\u00e1n az elk\u00f6vetkezend\u0151 h\u00f3napokban m\u00e1s ter\u00fcletekre helyez\u0151dik a f\u00f3kusz.<\/p>\n

Az olaj inventory-k <\/strong>a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokhoz k\u00e9pest massz\u00edv hi\u00e1nyt mutatnak, k\u00f6zel 1 milli\u00f3 hord\u00f3\/nap hi\u00e1nyzott az USA termel\u00e9s\u00e9b\u0151l az elm\u00falt id\u0151szakban. A legnagyobb kitermel\u0151 ter\u00fcleteket \u00e9rint\u0151 komoly t\u00e9li hidegek m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151d\u00e9s\u00e9vel v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an a hi\u00e1ny is sz\u00e9pen j\u00f6n majd visszafel\u00e9. Az \u00e1rfolyam az elm\u00falt h\u00e9ten m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelt \u00fctemben emelkedett tov\u00e1bb.<\/p>\n

\u00c9v elej\u00e9n kij\u00f6ttek a Bitcoin ETF<\/strong>-ek, a kezdeti lelkesed\u00e9s ut\u00e1n massz\u00edv bees\u00e9st l\u00e1thattunk, a 48-as szintekr\u0151l 39-re j\u00f6tt vissza, innen indult meg lassan ism\u00e9t felfel\u00e9.<\/p>\n

K\u00edna<\/strong> tekintet\u00e9ben a biztat\u00f3 sz\u00e1mok ellen\u00e9re tov\u00e1bbra is rengeteg a k\u00e9rd\u0151jel, az elemz\u0151i reakci\u00f3k alapj\u00e1n tov\u00e1bbi korm\u00e1nyzati stimulusokra lesz sz\u00fcks\u00e9g, hogy a jelenlegi helyzetb\u0151l kil\u00e1baljon, folyamatos a t\u0151ke ki\u00e1raml\u00e1sa a piacr\u00f3l. Egyel\u0151re mindenk\u00e9ppen komoly kock\u00e1zatokkal lehet sz\u00e1molni az orsz\u00e1got illet\u0151en.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kedvez\u0151en alakult az Euroz\u00f3na \u00e9s ezen bel\u00fcl a N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g feldolgoz\u00f3ipari teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye, b\u00e1r a sz\u00e1mok h\u00e1tter\u00e9ben els\u0151sorban nem a kereslet n\u00f6veked\u00e9se, hanem a sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si id\u0151k cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se \u00e1ll. A szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipar l\u00e9nyegesen gyeng\u00e9bben teljes\u00edtett a r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban, tov\u00e1bbra is probl\u00e9m\u00e1t jelent az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 szintje. Az ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rendk\u00edv\u00fcl pesszimista v\u00e1llalkoz\u00f3i hangulatr\u00f3l \u00e1rulkodik. Ezzel szemben az…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2500,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-elemzes"],"yoast_head":"\nSPB: S\u00falyos probl\u00e9m\u00e1k nehez\u00edtik az Euroz\u00f3na gazdas\u00e1gi helyzet\u00e9t - SPB Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=2499\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SPB: S\u00falyos probl\u00e9m\u00e1k nehez\u00edtik az Euroz\u00f3na gazdas\u00e1gi helyzet\u00e9t - SPB Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kedvez\u0151en alakult az Euroz\u00f3na \u00e9s ezen bel\u00fcl a N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g feldolgoz\u00f3ipari teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye, b\u00e1r a sz\u00e1mok h\u00e1tter\u00e9ben els\u0151sorban nem a kereslet n\u00f6veked\u00e9se, hanem a sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si id\u0151k cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se \u00e1ll. 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