{"id":1391,"date":"2022-08-09T15:30:07","date_gmt":"2022-08-09T15:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=1391"},"modified":"2022-08-09T15:32:38","modified_gmt":"2022-08-09T15:32:38","slug":"spb-jo-aron-lehet-amerikai-reszvenyeket-vasarolni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=1391","title":{"rendered":"SPB: j\u00f3 \u00e1ron lehet amerikai r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyeket v\u00e1s\u00e1rolni"},"content":{"rendered":"

K\u00edna \u00e9s a N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g eset\u00e9ben a kiv\u00e1r\u00e1s lehet indokolt befektet\u0151i magatart\u00e1s, az amerikai r\u00e9szv\u00e9nypiacon azonban m\u00e1r j\u00f3 \u00e1ron lehet pap\u00edrokat v\u00e1s\u00e1rolni, ami az USA \u00f6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben viszonylag kedvez\u0151 makrogazdas\u00e1gi adatainak is k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151. A forint az elm\u00falt id\u0151szakban a piaci szerepl\u0151k sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra is l\u00e1that\u00f3 okokn\u00e1l j\u00f3val jelent\u0151sebb er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9st mutatott, r\u00e1ad\u00e1sul ennek folytat\u00e1sa nem kiz\u00e1rhat\u00f3 \u2013 \u00f6sszegezt\u00e9k a r\u00f6vid t\u00e1v\u00fa befektet\u00e9si trendeket kedden d\u00e9lel\u0151tt az SPB Befektet\u00e9si Zrt. szak\u00e9rt\u0151i.<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00edna \u00e9s N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g eset\u00e9ben a kiv\u00e1r\u00e1s lehet indokolt<\/strong><\/p>\n

A Caixin feldolgoz\u00f3ipari PMI index alapj\u00e1n K\u00edna eset\u00e9ben tov\u00e1bbra is konjunkt\u00far\u00e1r\u00f3l besz\u00e9lhet\u00fcnk, az index minim\u00e1lis visszaes\u00e9s\u00e9t els\u0151sorban a ny\u00e1ri id\u0151szak, illetve kisebb r\u00e9szben a n\u00e9mileg er\u0151s\u00f6d\u0151 pand\u00e9mia okozza. Enn\u00e9l nagyobb jelent\u0151s\u00e9ggel b\u00edr a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 id\u0151szakban az, hogy mik\u00e9nt alakul K\u00edna \u00e9s Tajvan kapcsolata. \u00d6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben kijelenthet\u0151, hogy K\u00edna eset\u00e9ben kedvez\u0151ek a gazdas\u00e1gi kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok, de sz\u00e1mos kock\u00e1zati elem is azonos\u00edthat\u00f3 \u2013 p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul az eml\u00edtett konfliktushelyzet vagy a pand\u00e9mia \u2013, \u00edgy egyel\u0151re a kiv\u00e1r\u00e1s indokolt az \u00e1zsiai piacon.<\/p>\n

A n\u00e9met feldolgoz\u00f3ipari PMI index k\u00e9t \u00e9v \u00f3ta el\u0151sz\u00f6r ker\u00fclt az 50-es szint al\u00e1, teh\u00e1t a n\u00e9met feldolgoz\u00f3iparban dekonjunkt\u00far\u00e1r\u00f3l besz\u00e9lhet\u00fcnk, a megrendel\u00e9sek is visszaes\u00e9st mutatnak. A n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g legfontosabb k\u00e9rd\u00e9se jelenleg az energiaell\u00e1t\u00e1s megold\u00e1sa a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 minimum hat h\u00f3napban. Mindezek miatt N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g eset\u00e9ben is a kiv\u00e1r\u00e1s indokolt.<\/p>\n

Amerika sokkal jobb helyzetben van<\/strong><\/p>\n

Az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokban eg\u00e9szen m\u00e1s a helyzet: az amerikai feldolgoz\u00f3ipari PMI index csak minim\u00e1lis visszaes\u00e9st mutat, ut\u00f3bbit az ell\u00e1t\u00e1si l\u00e1nc probl\u00e9m\u00e1i, valamint a szezon\u00e1lis hat\u00e1sok okozz\u00e1k. Az USA gazdas\u00e1g\u00e1ban a f\u0151 probl\u00e9m\u00e1t tov\u00e1bbra is az \u00e1remelked\u00e9s jelenti, azonban m\u00e1r nem akkora az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 lend\u00fclete, mint az eddigiekben volt, teh\u00e1t a cs\u00facs\u00e1t tal\u00e1n m\u00e1r el\u00e9rhette. Probl\u00e9ma az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamok eset\u00e9ben a megrendel\u00e9s-\u00e1llom\u00e1nyok k\u00e9t h\u00f3napja tart\u00f3 cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se.<\/p>\n

Az amerikai munkaer\u0151piacon a nyitott \u00e1ll\u00e1shelyek sz\u00e1ma dr\u00e1maian visszaesett, azonban az \u00e9rt\u00e9k m\u00e9g mindig nagyon magas: most 1,8 nyitott \u00e1ll\u00e1shely jut minden munkakeres\u0151re, ami tavaly \u00f3ta a legalacsonyabb szint. Legink\u00e1bb a kis- \u00e9s nagykereskedelmi szektorban cs\u00f6kkent legnagyobb m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben a nyitott \u00e1ll\u00e1shelyek sz\u00e1ma.<\/p>\n

A FED az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 elleni k\u00fczdelem jegy\u00e9ben v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an tov\u00e1bb folytatja a kamatemel\u00e9seket. Az amerikai szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipari beszerz\u00e9si menedzser index a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat b\u0151ven meghalad\u00f3 m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben emelkedett, ami \u00e9rthet\u0151 is, hiszen ide koncentr\u00e1l\u00f3dik most a megrendel\u00e9s-\u00e1llom\u00e1ny, \u00e9s ezen a ter\u00fcleten az ell\u00e1t\u00e1si l\u00e1ncok sem okoznak sz\u00e1mottev\u0151 probl\u00e9m\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

J\u00f3 \u00e1ron lehet amerikai r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyeket v\u00e1s\u00e1rolni<\/strong><\/p>\n

Az amerikai k\u00f6tv\u00e9nypiaci mozg\u00e1sok alapj\u00e1n az l\u00e1that\u00f3, hogy lassul\u00e1st \u00e1raznak a befektet\u0151k, ugyanakkor mind a k\u00f6tv\u00e9ny-, mind a r\u00e9szv\u00e9nypiacok r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171 a bizalom a FED int\u00e9zked\u00e9seit illet\u0151en.<\/p>\n

Mostanra az S&P 500 c\u00e9geinek 87 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka jelentett; ezen c\u00e9gek h\u00e1romnegyede pozit\u00edv eredm\u00e9nyr\u0151l sz\u00e1molt be, \u00f6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben 13,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos bev\u00e9tel-n\u00f6veked\u00e9st el\u00e9rve. Fontos megjegyezni azonban, hogy ez az eredm\u00e9ny az energiaszektor c\u00e9geinek volt k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151. A harmadik negyed\u00e9vre vonatkoz\u00f3an az S&P 500 c\u00e9geinek 58 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka fogalmazott meg negat\u00edv v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat.<\/p>\n

Az S&P 500 grafikon jelent\u0151s ellen\u00e1ll\u00e1si szintn\u00e9l van: a jelenlegi 4150-4200 k\u00f6r\u00fcli szintr\u0151l egy felfel\u00e9 t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 kit\u00f6r\u00e9s tov\u00e1bbi emelked\u00e9st vet\u00edthet el\u0151 r\u00f6vid t\u00e1von, addig azonban a kiv\u00e1r\u00e1s lehet indokolt, \u00e1m \u00f6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben az l\u00e1that\u00f3, hogy most m\u00e1r j\u00f3 \u00e1ron lehet amerikai r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyeket v\u00e1s\u00e1rolni.<\/p>\n

\u00c1remelked\u00e9sre lehet sz\u00e1m\u00edtani az olaj piac\u00e1n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Az amerikai olajtartal\u00e9kok az export jelent\u0151s visszaes\u00e9s\u00e9nek k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151en b\u0151ven meghaladt\u00e1k a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sokat. Eml\u00edt\u00e9sre m\u00e9lt\u00f3, hogy jelent\u0151sen sz\u00e9tv\u00e1lt a Brent \u00e9s a WTI \u00e1rfolyama: a Brent \u00e1rfolyama elsz\u00e1llt, emiatt sok piacon megn\u0151het a kereslet a WTI-re. Az olaj\u00e1r eset\u00e9ben dr\u00e1mai es\u00e9sre m\u00e1r nem lehet sz\u00e1m\u00edtani, s\u0151t, a Brent v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an felfel\u00e9 h\u00fazza majd a WTI \u00e1r\u00e1t, teh\u00e1t \u00f6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben \u00e1remelked\u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 hosszabb t\u00e1von.<\/p>\n

Hazai p\u00e1lya: forint \u00e9s infl\u00e1ci\u00f3<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u00e1r a legut\u00f3bbi magyar k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si adatok b\u00edztat\u00f3ak, az elm\u00falt id\u0151szakban a forint piac\u00e1n l\u00e1that\u00f3 er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s okai nem egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171ek, ugyanis a hazai fizet\u0151eszk\u00f6z a r\u00e9gi\u00f3s deviz\u00e1kn\u00e1l is nagyobb m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00f6tt. Ez\u00e9rt nem kiz\u00e1rhat\u00f3, hogy a forint \u00e1rfolyama m\u00e1r a Magyarorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s az EU k\u00f6z\u00f6tti t\u00e1rgyal\u00e1sok siker\u00e9re utalhat. Az EUR\/HUF \u00e1rfolyam kapcs\u00e1n kijelenthet\u0151, hogy am\u00edg nem tud a 391-392-es szint alatt z\u00e1rni a forint \u00e1rfolyama, addig nincs sok es\u00e9ly a hazai fizet\u0151eszk\u00f6z tov\u00e1bbi er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9re, azonban a 391-es szint \u00e1tt\u00f6r\u00e9se eset\u00e9n tov\u00e1bbi jelent\u0151s forinter\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3. A mai, 13,7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s adat nem meglep\u0151, szeptemberben v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an m\u00e9g magasabb lesz az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3, ami azonban ut\u00e1na norm\u00e1lis p\u00e1ly\u00e1ra \u00e1llhat.<\/p>\n

Kapcsolat: info@spbinvest.hu<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K\u00edna \u00e9s a N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g eset\u00e9ben a kiv\u00e1r\u00e1s lehet indokolt befektet\u0151i magatart\u00e1s, az amerikai r\u00e9szv\u00e9nypiacon azonban m\u00e1r j\u00f3 \u00e1ron lehet pap\u00edrokat v\u00e1s\u00e1rolni, ami az USA \u00f6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben viszonylag kedvez\u0151 makrogazdas\u00e1gi adatainak is k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151. A forint az elm\u00falt id\u0151szakban a piaci szerepl\u0151k sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra is l\u00e1that\u00f3 okokn\u00e1l j\u00f3val jelent\u0151sebb er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9st mutatott, r\u00e1ad\u00e1sul ennek folytat\u00e1sa nem kiz\u00e1rhat\u00f3 \u2013 \u00f6sszegezt\u00e9k a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1392,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,4,5,2,24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-befektetes","category-kotveny","category-lifestyle","category-reszveny","category-spb"],"yoast_head":"\nSPB: j\u00f3 \u00e1ron lehet amerikai r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyeket v\u00e1s\u00e1rolni - SPB Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"K\u00edna \u00e9s a N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g eset\u00e9ben a kiv\u00e1r\u00e1s lehet indokolt befektet\u0151i magatart\u00e1s, az amerikai r\u00e9szv\u00e9nypiacon azonban m\u00e1r j\u00f3 \u00e1ron lehet pap\u00edrokat v\u00e1s\u00e1rolni.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.spbinvest.hu\/?p=1391\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SPB: j\u00f3 \u00e1ron lehet amerikai r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyeket v\u00e1s\u00e1rolni - 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